Welcome to our first edition of Only Signals. Do not let the title fool you. This is not about traffic lights. That is unless you need a green light to make a smart Investment.

Only Signals is for investors who want clarity from the primary sources. Each write-up takes a side that is often not a consensus. We then pressure-test it using price action plus what management points to in filings. Plain Signal is the engine behind it. It makes dense SEC disclosures into clear investment insights. This way, you can spot opportunities and concerns with ease.

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For our first deep dive, we're breaking down an industry leader in financial information, S&P Global.

S&P Global is one of the market’s highest-quality gate keepers. It owns rails that markets run on, credit ratings, indices, and data workflows. This is the kind of business investors label “safe,” then forget it still trades like a macro asset when the credit cycle turns.

The headline today is simple. SPGI is down about 14.3% YTD through early 2026, and it recently traded around $439.

Our take: SPGI looks undervalued for medium-term investors right now. This is only if you accept that the stock can stay choppy until debt issuance wakes back up. The market is pricing a soft patch like it is structural. In our read, it is cyclical plus transition friction.

S&P Global still has a high recurring base, and Plain Signal’s model calls the business low risk overall. The issue is that the RatingFigs segment remains the “profit engine,” and it is tied to issuance volumes. When rate cuts get pushed out, borrowers wait. That hits ratings transactions first, which hits investor sentiment next.

This is exactly the reconciliation you laid out. Even with roughly 79% recurring revenue, SPGI’s stock catches a cold when credit markets sneeze. That is not a contradiction; it is rethe stock market doing stock market things.

Why this supports undervaluation: the market is treating a volume pause like a durable downgrade to the earnings power. SPGI has historically snapped back quickly when issuance returns because the machine is already built. The costs do not need to be rebuilt. The margins are already there.

The market is also digesting two big moves at once.

In isolation, neither is scary. Together, they create “deal friction.” Investors hate moments when a clean compounding story turns into a portfolio reshuffle.

Why this supports undervaluation: the execution risk is being priced as if it is likely to disappoint. But management has a strong integration track record. The With Intelligence deal is framed as strengthening private market capabilities, where demand is structural and global.

The market is charging SPGI a higher uncertainty tax than the base business deserves.

This part matters most.

Recent valuation snapshots put SPGI at around 32x trailing earnings and roughly 22x forward earnings.

That is not “cheap” in absolute terms. But it is meaningfully different from “priced for perfection,” especially for a company with moat-like margins, recurring revenue, and strong free cash flow conversion.

Why this shows undervaluation: With a forward multiple in the low 20s, the market expects slower growth and some near-term uncertainty. That may be fair for the next few quarters. It looks too conservative for a multi-year view if credit issuance normalizes and private market data continues to expand.

If this were a no-brainer, the stock would not be down double digits. Two risks are real and show up in your model.

SPGI’s recurring revenue stabilizes the floor, but the stock still trades on the Ratings cycle. If rate cuts stay delayed longer than the market expects, the wait-and-see period extends. That can keep multiple compression in place.

S&P Global Ratings paid a $20M SEC penalty tied to recordkeeping rules, and the SEC’s own release shows this was part of a broader action across multiple agencies. This is not existential, but it is a reminder that regulators can create sudden headline risk. That tends to amplify drawdowns when valuations is high.

Takeaway: It can’t all be perfect. But these worries are not in line with the business performance.

The market is pricing three things at once.

The key question is whether any of those cause permanent damage to the core toll booth. Right now, the evidence says no. They mostly affect timing and sentiment. When a market prices timing risk as if it is structural, that is where long-term mispricing shows up.

SPGI is undervalued today. The market is experiencing a slowdown in Ratings volumes. Recent execution issues seem to be ongoing problems. If you can handle volatility, the current valuation seems more like “great business with questions.” It’s not “great business priced for perfection.” That’s where you often find good risk-adjusted entries.

Analysis Platform: Plain Signal Risk Model and Filings